Part 1 of a ten-part research programme on US equity valuation: establishing 145 years of CAPE history as the shared foundation, and a genuine regime shift the rest of the series builds on
Using the platform's newly implemented Shiller CAPE series (1,747 monthly observations, 1881-2026), this piece establishes the shared historical baseline for a ten-part research programme on US equity valuation. Over the full sample, CAPE has averaged 17.77 (median 16.61, range 4.78-44.20); today's reading of roughly 41 sits at approximately the 99th percentile of this entire history. A more striking finding: splitting the sample into three eras shows CAPE averaged 14.61 before 1945 and 14.54 from 1945-1989 -- nearly identical over 45-plus years -- before nearly doubling to 27.26 since 1990. This is evidence of a genuine regime shift around 1990, not just an unusually high current reading, raising an open question later papers in this series will address: is the relevant historical comparison the full 145-year average, or the post-1990 era specifically?
This article is available to Research Members.
Subscribe to continue reading, including full analysis and data.
View plansA full institutional decomposition of the 2026 Iran conflict into four distinct economic transmission channels, with a ten-scenario quantified framework and the lucabindi.com House View
Part of the Equity Valuation Programme: a permanent, automatically-updating framework for the ratio Warren Buffett called "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" -- reconstructed here entirely from lucabindi.com's own warehouse
Research Paper 2 of The New Global Macroeconomic Regime: The Transformation of Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Global Trade